+EV and Arbitrage Betting FAQ

VigBreak detects hundreds of signals, but the paper-trader applies filters before logging a bet. EV bets with decimal odds above 5.0 are excluded to reduce variance - they are real edges, just not paper-traded. Kelly staking also means very small edges receive near-zero stakes and may be skipped entirely.

The paper-trader is an automated bot that simulates placing a bet at the moment each qualifying signal fires, always before kickoff. It uses half-Kelly sizing on a 100-unit bankroll. No bets are backdated or edited.

A signal is an opportunity detected by our models: either a positive expected-value (EV) bet at a soft bookmaker, or an arbitrage opportunity across two or more bookmakers. Every signal is timestamped before the event starts.

Available: odds are still live and the event has not started. Odds Gone: the bookmaker moved or removed the price. Event Started: the event has kicked off. Completed: the event finished.

An EV bet is one where our model believes the true probability of an outcome is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability. Over a large sample, positive EV bets should return profit even if individual bets lose.

An arb covers all outcomes of an event across multiple bookmakers at odds that guarantee a profit regardless of the result. The profit % is locked in at the time of the signal.

All results are shown in units (u) rather than currency. One unit equals 1% of a 100-unit bankroll. This makes performance comparable regardless of individual stake size. For example, a +2.3u result means the same whether you bet £10 or £100 per unit.

The stats page only includes signals that were paper-traded. Signals filtered out (high odds, very low Kelly stake) are shown on the Signals page but not in the performance numbers. We don't place paper bets on high odds signals to avoid skewing the stats with longshot wins/losses that aren't representative of the bot's core edge. These are winning bets, but the variance is extreme and they are not the focus of our strategy, which is to find consistent edges at reasonable odds.

CLV measures whether the odds we bet at were better or worse than the final odds before kickoff. If we bet at 2.10 and the closing price was 1.95, our CLV is positive. Consistently beating the closing line is the strongest evidence of a genuine edge.

CLV profit = sum of (stake × CLV %), with CLV % being how much better the placed odds were than the closing odds, across all settled EV bets. It represents the theoretical profit implied by how well we beat the market, independent of win/loss variance. If CLV profit is much higher than actual P&L, we are running below expectation; if much lower, we are running above. This is the bot's EV.

The average return of each individual bet. Since our bets use kelly staking, we expect this number to be below our overall ROI. Higher confidence bets get larger stakes.

Arb staking is fundamentally different - you commit capital to all legs simultaneously to guarantee profit. Combining EV and ARB stakes would misrepresent how the bankroll is being used. EV stake gives a clean picture of Kelly-sized directional bets. We don't have to prove that our arbs work, the maths does that for us.

Every paper bet placed by the bot, with the odds at the time of placement, the result, and the P&L in units. ARB bets show the combined result for all legs of that arb. The bot will only place one bet per event, even if there are signals across multiple bookmakers.

For each settled EV bet, CLV shows how our placed odds compared to the closing odds - positive means we got better than the closing price, and placed a good bet.

Completed shows all settled bets (won, lost, voided) - everything that is no longer pending. This lets you look into specific bets and see the details of how they performed, including CLV.

The Event date filter narrows bets by when the event took place, not when the bet was logged. Useful for looking at a specific match day or week.

Player props (e.g. Over 22.5 points, Over 4.5 assists) have no reliable result feed we can verify automatically. Rather than skip the bet, we paper-trade it and record CLV - how much better our odds were than the closing price. CLV is the real performance signal for props: consistently beating the closing line means we have an edge, regardless of the individual outcome. The push result means the bet has no P&L impact on the portfolio.

For ARBs on sports without a score source (boxing, tennis, MMA, rugby) and for player prop ARBs, we cannot determine which leg actually won. We record Leg 1 as Won and Leg 2 as Lost by convention - the assignment is arbitrary. The total P&L is always correct and always equals the guaranteed profit locked in at signal time. A note is shown on any bet where this applies.

Positive EV (expected value) betting means placing bets where the true probability of winning is higher than what the bookmaker's odds imply. If fair odds on an outcome are 2.00 but a bookmaker is offering 2.10, you have a 5% edge. Over many bets, those edges compound into profit, even though individual bets still lose roughly as often as you would expect.

The key is having a reliable estimate of the true probability. VigBreak uses Pinnacle and betting exchanges as the reference, since they operate with tight margins and reflect sharp money. When a soft bookmaker's odds are meaningfully better than the reference, VigBreak surfaces it as a +EV signal.

Arbitrage betting (arb betting) means placing bets on all outcomes of an event across different bookmakers, at odds where the combined implied probabilities add up to less than 100%. This locks in a guaranteed profit regardless of the result.

For example: if one bookmaker offers 2.20 on Team A and another offers 2.20 on Team B, the implied probabilities are 45.5% + 45.5% = 91%. Because that is below 100%, backing both sides returns a profit of roughly 9.9% on your total stake no matter who wins.

Both approaches aim to beat the vig, but they work differently. With +EV betting, you back one outcome because the odds are better than the true probability. You will lose individual bets, but the edge produces profit over a large enough sample. With arbitrage, you back all outcomes simultaneously across different bookmakers, locking in a guaranteed return before the event starts.

Arb is variance-free per bet but requires more bookmaker accounts and faster execution. +EV has short-term variance but is simpler to execute and can be harder for bookmakers to detect. Many serious bettors use both.

The vig (also called the margin or juice) is the bookmaker's built-in profit. If both outcomes of a coin flip have a true probability of 50%, fair odds are 2.0. A bookmaker might offer 1.90 on both sides instead. The implied probabilities are 52.6% each, totalling 105.2%. The extra 5.2% is the vig. Bet enough at those odds and you lose money over time, purely because of the vig.

Beating the vig means finding bets where the available odds exceed the true probability, so the expected return is positive rather than negative. Both +EV betting and arbitrage are strategies for doing this.

Use the vig calculator to measure it on any odds.

CLV (closing line value) measures whether the odds you bet at were better than the final odds before kickoff. See the Statistics section above for a full explanation.

Every signal is timestamped before the event starts and cannot be edited after the fact. Every win and every loss, including losing streaks, appears on the public tracker at /stats. Nothing is deleted or hidden.

No account is needed. All signals, results, and bet history are publicly visible without signing in.

The full list is always up to date in the bookmaker filter on the signals page. Use it to see exactly which books are active and to filter signals by the bookmakers you have accounts with.

It depends on your situation. The software itself finds real edges. Whether you can act on them profitably comes down to bookmaker access and discipline.

If you have multiple active bookmaker accounts with reasonable stake limits, +EV software can produce consistent returns over time. If you have one or two accounts with low limits, or accounts that are already restricted, the practical opportunity is limited.

VigBreak is free, so the barrier to trying it is low. Check the public track record to evaluate the performance before committing any real money.

Yes. VigBreak is built primarily around the UK market.

You can filter signals by bookmaker on the signals page to see only the books you have accounts with.

Yes, eventually. Bookmakers limit accounts that consistently bet on value because it is unprofitable for them. Arbitrage bettors are easier to identify and tend to get limited faster, because backing every outcome of an event is an obvious pattern. +EV bettors who are selective and vary their stakes can last longer. We suggest rounding your stake to the nearest £1, £5, £10 etc. dependant on the size of the bet.

Restrictions typically come as reduced maximum stakes rather than outright closure. A £500 maximum bet becomes £10, or certain markets are closed to you. The account remains open for recreational betting but is no longer useful for value betting.

This is a real constraint and part of the reason new bookmaker accounts are a valuable resource. Opening accounts carefully and not betting on pure arbs immediately after opening can extend their useful life. There is no permanent fix.

Yes. VigBreak is free, with no account required. Every signal, every result, and the full bet history in the public tracker are visible to anyone.

We are in beta. A subscription may be introduced in the future and we will give plenty of notice before any charges begin, so you will have time to decide whether you want to continue.

Our focus right now is on making sure the product works well before we start charging. Early users will be the first to know when pricing goes live.

Visit our contact page and we'll get back to you as soon as possible.